2012 forecast: Values to rise 18%


The median home price in Palm Coast for the first quarter of 2011 was $125,000.
The median home price in Palm Coast for the first quarter of 2011 was $125,000.
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The projected annual growth from 2011 to 2016 is 8.9% for Palm Coast, according to Fiserv.

Home values in Palm Coast could be on the rise, according to a report by Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes, a company that measures the average change in home prices in a particular geographic market.

A recent report on www.CNNMoney.com forecasts a positive change in Palm Coast home values over the next 20 months.

From the first quarter of 2011 to the first quarter of 2012, a 0.2% increase is projected. For the same time frame from 2012 to 2013, an 18.1% increase is projected.

These numbers coincide with another Fiserv report that was published last month by Business Insider. Fiserv covers more than 3,000 zip codes in 300 countries and 100 metropolitan areas, according to its website, www.caseshiller.fiserv.com.

The Business Insider report lists Palm Coast as the No. 10 best buyers’ housing market for the next five years. Palm Coast joins Top-15 Florida cities Melbourne (No. 13), Panama City (tie for No. 11), Port St. Lucie (tie for No. 11), Ocala (No. 7) and Lakeland (No. 6).

“From peak to the end of 2010, home prices fell 53.3% (in Palm Coast),” Business Insider states. “Palm Coast won’t experience positive growth until 2012, but when it does, it will be a stunner with a year of 15.2% growth.”

Flagler County Property Appraiser Jay Gardner said he can’t predict what will happen over the next few years because he works behind one year.

“I’m really looking back, not forward,” he said.

The recently announced 12.83% property value decrease in Palm Coast is based on 2010 data.

Still, Gardner thinks the increase will eventually come.

“I truly believe that when things spark up, it will correct and maybe over correct,” Gardner said. “Then, things will just level out.”

Gardner said that eventually all the cheaper houses will be bought, so the higher priced homes will then be the only homes left on the market.

Toby Tobin, of www.GoToby.com, agrees. Tobin said he is seeing signs of recovery in the Palm Coast housing market.

“The inventory of unsold homes continues to decline,” Tobin said. “As soon as potential buyers realize that bargains are becoming scarce, prices will begin to rise.”

Tobin said that the quicker the inventory is reduced, the sooner prices will rise.

“The sense of scarcity will start (to get the) competitive juices flowing,” he said. “Prices will begin to rise.”

PALM COAST BY THE NUMBERS
Median family income (2010): $53,700
Median home price (first quarter 2011): $125,000
Change in home prices (from first quarter 2010 thru first quarter 2011): -12.8%
Worst one-year home-price change (1980-2011): -26.2% (second quarter 2008)
Source: Fiserv

 

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